Regression and Elasticity of Maize Price and Production in Romania

Abstract:

The paper aimed to analyze the average maize grains acquisition price, cultivated area, production and yield in Romania, and to characterize the connections existing between these indicators in the period 2007-2014, based on the statistical parameters, correlations, regression statistics and analysis as well as the elasticity coefficients. The maize price is strongly and positively correlated with the cultivated area, r=0.829, but very weakly with production, r = 0.170, and yield, r = 0.03.  The regression correlation between maize price and production and yield: R = 0.1707643, and respectively R=0.0037907 with a low R2, only 0.029168, and 1.43896. But between price and cultivated land, the correlation was higher, R = 0.7289934 and R2 = 0.531431. The determined price-production and price-yield regression models were: Y = 597.06787 + 0079463 X and, respectively, Y = 7986.041825 + 0.000425926. The validity of the models was confirmed by F test, reflecting the various links between these indicators and a sinuous trend. The price elasticity coefficients varied in the two variants, V1 and V2, being higher when 2007 was term of reference. In most of cases, it was noticed a relatively inelastic price, with no response to production growth. The price volatility could influence producers to carry out products with a low price variation and this will also affect consumption and trade. Price-production and price-yield regressions are more important to better identify the relationships between these economic indicators.

nsdlogo2016