Abstract:

The main factors that hinder the progress of pension reform and adversely affect the functioning of the Ukrainian pension system are demographic changes toward aging of population, labor supply shortage, and capital stock destructions caused by war. The approach to economic modeling is based on an overlapping generation (OLG) model. The process of demographic change represents a major challenge to Ukraine’s economy. As a consequence, there is a permanent deficit in the pension system. The pension system must therefore be reorganized after the end of the war. This requires systematic methods of analysis and forecasting. This paper makes a first attempt to simulate the state of the Ukrainian pension system and economy in the future, taking into account the effects of the proposed reforms of the pension system and excluding the impact of the war and the various forms of support for other countries’ economies.