Abstract:

The progression and consequences of the full-scale war in Ukraine are typically analyzed through the lens of frontline movements, casualties, and the terms of a potential political settlement. This conceptual study proposes a different analytical perspective: the focus shifts from "who will win on the battlefield" to "how war-induced changes—and the structure of post-war flows of capital, labor, and institutions—will influence the distribution of economic benefits once the active phase of the conflict concludes." The concepts applied here to analyze the war's economic consequences draw on a combination of two established scientific fields: relativistic astrophysics (with theoretical foundations laid by Albert Einstein) and econophysics (which applies statistical physics methods to explain financial and economic phenomena).
The study employs the method of structural analogy to outline a conceptual framework—incorporating concepts such as the event horizon, singularity, accretion disk, and jets—in relation to the functioning of specific fiscal and monetary policy channels: tax base effects, donor fund administration, contingent liabilities and guarantees, and macroprudential responses to capital inflows. This framework is applied to the case of Poland—a country situated in the "accretion zone" adjacent to Ukraine—addressing the risk of remaining merely a transit corridor without participating in value creation, as well as Ukraine’s own position regarding the outflow of resources, particularly human capital. Thus, the study’s findings represent a theoretical and programmatic contribution that identifies testable hypotheses for future quantitative research and provides a foundation for proactive fiscal planning amidst wartime uncertainty.