Abstract:

The risk evaluation has become over time the standard of trust for international financial institution in the financial system of each country. The country risk is one of the state financial standing evaluation tools. This study carried out an econometric fiscal model for a quantitative country risk based on the main performance indicators of the Romanian Consolidated General Budget. Our analysis and data used involves a 5 years period of the budget execution. Through the observational methods (study of the specialized literature) and the analytical methods (study and consolidation of databases, econometric modeling) a model of the country risk assessment was developed, which has the advantage of simplistic observational synthesis and the quantification of certain historical data with the possibility of transposing the forecast over a set time horizon.