Analysis and Forecasting of State Information Security Indicators

Abstract:

In the national security system of the state, special attention is paid to information security, which at the present stage is one of the main guarantees for ensuring the country's competitiveness in world markets and the growth of its international authority. This determined the need to study the level of information security in Russia. To study the threats to the information security of the Russian Federation, to predict its indicators, this study selected groups of indicators that characterize the development of the information society (the share of gross value added of the information and communication technology sector in GDP, the development index of information and communication technologies, the balance of trade turnover of goods and services -communication technologies, million dollars), characterizing the human resources potential in the information sphere (the share of people employed in the sector of information and communication technologies, the number of students admitted to higher education organizations in the field of study "Informatics and Computer Engineering" and graduates of this direction), and also characterizing the level of investment and innovation activities in the information sphere (the share of internal costs for R&D in information and communication technologies in their total volume, the share of investments in fixed capital directed for the purchase of equipment for information and communication technologies, in their total volume, the level of innovative activity of organizations in the information and communication technology sector, the share of innovative goods, works, services in the total volume of shipped goods, works, services (in the ICT sector)). Based on the forecasts made, recommendations were developed to improve the level of information security as a tool to ensure the protection of national interests.

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