Abstract:
The purpose of the paper was the analysis of the dynamics of GDP, employment (EM), fixed assets (FA), net investments (NI) and labor productivity (LP) in Romania's agriculture in the period 2002-2012, using empirical data provided by National Institute of Statistics. The average, variance, variation coefficient, Pearson correlation coefficient, linear regression model, standard error, determination coefficient, were computed using the specific statistical methods of data processing. Also, the study identified the main trends of the economic indicators, and established the forecast of GDP in Romania's agriculture for the period 2013-2020 and proposed the ways to improve the economic growth in this sector. In the period 2002-2012, GDP created in agriculture was Lei million 27,981.91±5,615.005 with 20.06% variation coefficient, fixed assets recorded in average Lei million 19,733.32±12,726.665 with a high variation coefficient (64.49 %), net investments accounted in average for Lei million 2,520.67±778.010 with 30.86 % coefficient of variation, employment was in average 2,973.65±294.56 thousand person with a low variation ( 9.90%) and labor productivity recorded Lei 9,197.35±3,236.59 per employee with 35.19 % variation. In the analyzed period, GDP created in agriculture increased by about 5 % in average, but agriculture contribution to GDP declined from 11.36 % in 2002 to 4.38 % in 2012. Fixed capital in agriculture represented just 2.33 % of fixed assets in the economy in 2012. Agriculture share in the national investments value decreased from 11.65 % in 2002 to 3.74 % in 2012. About 2,682 thousand persons worked in agriculture in 2012, representing 28.92 % in total employment, a high level compared to the EU average of about 4 %. Compared to Lei 28.4/hour average productivity in the economy, in agriculture it was registered only Lei 7.7 per hour, that is 3.68 times less. A strong positive correlation was found between GDP and fixed assets (r = 0.765) and labor productivity (r = 0.834). The linear regression model established for GDP depending on fixed assets was Y= 0.3378 X +21,316.827 with a standard error Sest = 3,808.022 and the determination coefficient, R2=0.5861 and the linear regression model for GDP depending on labor productivity was Y= 1.447 X + 14,671.11 with a standard error Sest = 3,263.737 and the determination coefficient, R2=0.6959. The validity of all the regression models for GDPxFA, GDPxNI, GDPxEM and GDPxLP have been confirmed by F test, as Fstat> Fcritical value for 0.05 significance threshold, 95 % probability and degree of freedom: k-1=1, n-2=9. The forecast for the period 2013-20202 showed that GDP created in Romania's in agriculture could reach in the year 2020 Lei million 79,538 depending on the of the average growth rate of fixed assets, 22.87 %, and Lei million 53,937 depending on the average growth rate of labor productivity, 9.27 %. As a final conclusion, agriculture needs more modern fixed capital, a higher farm size, new technologies, better farmers' training and managerial skills, high quality extension services in order to improve labor productivity and economic efficiency, and increase GDP produced in this important sector of Romania's economy.
