Abstract:

Effective and targeted development policy requires, at its core, access to reliable information on population, including its spatial disaggregation. From the perspective of socio-economic development, demographic potential of local communities is definitely an important impact factor. In this paper demographic changes and financial indicators (CIT, PIT, property tax, tax on civil law transactions) at NUTS 5 level (municipalities) of West Pomerania Province were analyzed. Demographic potential refers to socio-economic information expressed statistically, and here, specifically, to birth rate, migration balance, total dependency ratio, population ageing rate and demographic old age ratio. First, a Municipal Development Potential Index (MDPI) was construed, following which probabilistic forecasts of regional development were made based on stochastic differential equation models (SDE). Research methodology included projections of demographic data with the use of SDE for the years 2019-2021. SDE provided a predictive modeling framework that could be used for all municipalities under the study. The research findings reveal disparities in development potential between municipalities. From among 114 municipalities of West Pomerania Province only 26 were classified as “progressive” in terms of population and above-average MDPI value. Analysis of the synthetic variable and projections made may be an attractive tool in strategic management at the provincial level, and in particular, in the development of long-term strategies. The model suggested in the paper can also serve as a predictive modeling tool to be used in policy planning at regional and municipal level.