Abstract:

The 2008+ crisis and its impact on the image of the euro area called into question the benefits of joining the monetary union of catching up countries. They incurred tremendous costs of the structural maladjustment of economies to the common currency area, which includes countries with strongly diversified economies: highly developed and catching up. The need to stabilize the situation in the euro area and counteract similar crises intensifies the discussion and actions aimed at deepening integration and strengthening the fiscal function in the EMU, i.e. creating the foundations of a fiscal union. These proposals are a challenge for countries with a derogation, including Poland. The authors considered it justified to prepare the assessment of Poland's economy adjustment to the introduction of the euro. Analysis of the catching up process and evaluation of the achieved level of convergence cover the years 2002-2019 and the following economies: Austria, Germany, France, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Slovakia and Poland. The average periodic indicators of changes in GDP, labor productivity, employment, investments, unit labor costs, TFP, unemployment, exports and inflation were used as well as indicators illustrating the situation in public finances, external equilibrium and measures of convergence. The empirical analysis was based on the OCA theory. The results of this analysis can be summarized as follows: 1) the catching up effect has been achieved by Poland; 2) nevertheless, Poland does not yet meet the criterion of real convergence with the euro area; 3) by resigning from its own currency, it could suffer economic shocks, and the greatest risk is a decline in the competitive advantage and exports, and consequently economic dynamics; 4) observing the economic problems of Spain, Portugal and Slovakia, this can be expected