Abstract:

Public discussion in Poland frequently attributes the declining residential independence of young adults to rapidly rising housing prices. This article tests that proposition within a deliberately narrow financial framework using earnings, transaction prices, rents prices, disposable income, housing-stock indicators, and co-residence with parents. Between 2017 and 2025, young people’s earnings increased by 111.6%, while primary- and secondary-market prices rose by 112.9% and 117.1%. Square metres purchasable with one monthly wage therefore changed only from 0.511 to 0.508 in the primary market and from 0.623 to 0.608 in the secondary market. The rent-to-earnings ratio was lower in 2025 than in 2019. Meanwhile, housing stock and floor area per person increased, although co-residence rose markedly after 2019. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that relative financial affordability has not deteriorated materially. This does not imply that housing is inexpensive or that other financial and non-financial determinants are unimportant. It shows that nominal house-price growth, assessed relative to the available income measures, is insufficient on its own to explain declining residential independence.