Abstract:

New threats to the energy security of a country arise in the conditions of geopolitical changes. Their negative impact can be exacerbated by internal threats or mitigated by solving structural and technological problems in the energy sphere. Identifying threats and assessing their impact on the state energy security level is an important step in finding the ways to counteract these threats. The system of indicators has been formed to investigate the threats to Ukraine's energy security. The system takes into account the impact of internal and external threats. The results of the calculation of the integrated index of energy security of Ukraine in 2007-2017 show that the situation in the energy sector has improved. The most influential factors of energy security of Ukraine in 2017 are determined using the sensitivity coefficient. Based on the dynamics of the respective indices during 2007-2017, optimistic scenarios of change of these indices up to 2020 have been substantiated. The indices are characterised by a high probability of mitigating energy threats to Ukraine. They are connected with using coal as the base energy resource, slow technological upgrading of fuel and energy sector enterprises and processing industry, insufficient implementation of the use of renewable energy sources.