Abstract:

The economic impact of possible Brexit outcomes is analyzed in several scenarios involving negotiations between Great Britain and the EU on trade, labor or monetary agreements. Economic forecasting is quite difficult in normal times. When the range of possible outcomes - from no agreement with the EU to favorable bilateral agreements - is as large as at the time of writing, it is almost impossible. Regardless of what happens with Brexit, many other factors - including the UK's domestic economic policy - will lead to economic growth between 2018 and 2033. However, there is no doubt that a "hard" Brexit would have a significant impact on growth. in the medium and long term.