Abstract:

In economics, a black swan is an event that is unlikely to occur and whose consequences are disproportionately large. The aim of the article is to present the changes in supply and its impact on selected aspects of the logistics supply chain under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, which is an example of a black swan event. It also includes a preliminary assessment of the new US tariff policy, which should also be considered a black swan. The article is the result of the interview with a long-time head of the purchasing department in one of the large Polish exporters. The observations and conclusions, especially those regarding the USA, should be treated with great caution. This is rather a presentation of the problem than an analysis. Following the description of a black swan event and integration processes, the author, on the basis of the literature on the subject, made an attempt to divide the substantive part of the article into several elements: make or buy decisions, sources of supply, transport, safety stocks, and supplier assessment. Moreover, as a result of the interview, attention was paid to legal aspects as they are of great importance in conditions of necessity