Abstract:

Many regions in the world experience different climatic changes and environmental impacts as the average temperature of the Earth continues to increase as a result of increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, global warming and global food security issues will continue to be at the center of policy debates. There are conflicting hypotheses regarding the relation between climate change and agricultural production & trade in the literature. In this study, major determinants of agricultural trade capability, including climate change indicators are analyzed for Turkey and her major rivals in the European food market. The European food market is selected because out of top 15 destinations in agricultural export of Turkey, ten countries are European countries. Panel data models are employed to analyze the main determinants of agricultural trade for 16 countries for the period of 1990-2008. The empirical evidence supports that climate change affects the agricultural trade capability of Turkey and the major comparative emerging and developing countries. FEM results reveal that particulate emission damage decreases agricultural trade capability of emerging and developed countries in the European food market. In addition, carbon dioxide emission level is favorable for agricultural trade capability in developed countries due to usage of energy sources and the efficiency in agricultural production. Contradicting results are applicable for emerging countries since the carbon dioxide emission level is favorable mainly for the industrial sector. Furthermore, carbon dioxide intensity is also negatively correlated with the agricultural trade capability of both emerging and developed countries.