Abstract:

The EU power sector of Poland underwent its most significant transformation during the period spanning from 2014 to 2024. The article demonstrates how Poland transitioned its renewable energy sources from biomass dominance to a new system based on solar power and wind energy. The analysis uses harmonized annual data from ARE, URE, PSE, IRENA and Eurostat to calculate compound annual growth rates (CAGR) and Efficiency Index (EI) and Structural Share Index (SSI) and Structural Change Index (SCI) while performing correlation analysis to measure technology substitution and complementarity. The main statistics demonstrate a significant transformation in the power sector. The installed renewable capacity expanded by more than five times during this period reaching 32.3 GW in 2024 from its initial 5.8 GW in 2014 while power generation increased from 19.3 TWh to 48 TWh. The SCI value of 45.2% indicates Poland underwent a complete transformation of its renewable energy system portfolio. The majority of renewable power generation growth came from photovoltaics (PV) which accounted for 60% of total increases while wind power maintained its position as the system's efficiency foundation. The renewable power generation mix of Poland reached 80% dependence on PV and wind power by 2024 which reduced biomass usage to stabilizing levels and maintained hydropower output at its current level. The correlation patterns show that PV and biomass operate against each other (r = −0.92) but PV and wind power show positive growth correlation (r = +0.85). The Polish energy transition follows a fundamental transformation path because of EU and national policies and decreasing costs and increasing numbers of prosumers. The maintenance of this solar–wind power system will depend more heavily on grid infrastructure development and storage deployment and market systems that promote flexible operations.