Abstract:

The present paper presents a possibility to apply forecasting methods based on autoregressive modeling and annual periodicity profile do determine an anticipated future number of granted building permissions for new dwellings in Poland. Additional value of this research lies in the possibility for utilitarian comparison of applied models that base their autoregressive side on the following structures: AR, ARX, ARMAX, ARI, ARIX, as well as ARIMAX. The research confirmed the possibility to elaborate a predictive model characterized by good qualitative parameters. Modeling quality was verified, inter alia, by determination coefficient and residue distribution characteristics. Forecasts elaborated by means of predictive models showed how the forecasted phenomenon takes shape in the future.