Abstract:

Systems that warn an organization, facing the requirement of effectiveness and reliability of emitting warnings, must have sufficient theoretical and methodological resources to carry out the entrusted tasks. The effectiveness of current methods of emitting warnings is significantly limited in the so-called nondeterministic situations. One issue of warning systems is the phenomenon of “surprises”, which consists in failure to notice the symptoms of incoming events in time despite the presence of technologically and organizationally advanced warning systems. A lot in this area depends on the effectiveness of signal perception. The aim of this article is to propose a universal approach to the issue of perceiving  threats, presenting author's own thoughts in the field of interpretation of what a warning signal really is and what can affect the effectiveness of this perception. This work uses the following scientific methods: analysis and criticism of literature, analysis and logical construction, as well as the heuristic method: “new look” method and the analogue transfer method. These methods are complemented by the method of deductive reasoning combined with the enumerative induction. The result of the work carried out is the presentation of the concept of threat interpretation as well as the warning signal model associated with this interpretation.