Critical Path Method based on Fuzzy Numbers: Comparison with Monte Carlo Method

Abstract:

The Critical Path Method (CPM) is widely use for planning and control of complex projects. The CPM identifies the critical path of an network chart. The CPM requires the availability of clear defined time duration for each activity (activity time). However, thus clear defined (accurate) values are not known in real situations. There is always uncertainty about the time durations of activities. There is the PERT method which computes with uncertainties, but this method is demanding to studying and implementing. The uncertainties of the time durations of activities can be also described by fuzzy sets. This paper shows how fuzzy numbers are used to determine a critical path method in a fuzzy project network, where the duration time of each activity is expressed by a triangular fuzzy number. The described method is compared with Monte Carlo method. The comparison shows that the method described in this paper is simple to calculating a critical path than many methods (e.g. PERT) shown in literature.