Abstract:

The article addresses the problem of increasing the effectiveness of systems that warn modern organisations against threats. The problem of many warning systems is the phenomenon of the so-called "surprise", consisting in failing to see the symptoms of upcoming negative events in time. This often happens despite the presence of technologically advanced detection and monitoring systems. It is believed that the solution to this problem is provided by Igor H. Ansoff's concept of weak signals. However, in many situations, it is noted that methods based on this concept have limited effectiveness, especially in relation to threat signals.

The aim of the article is to propose a new theoretical as well as methodological approach to the problem of monitoring weak signals that contain information about the impending threat.  The scientific methods used in the paper include the questionnaire survey, ex-post observation and evaluation of cases, analysis and criticism of source materials, logical analysis and logical construction, as well as heuristic methods: the "fresh look" method and the analogical transfer method. The methods of deductive reasoning and enumerative induction were incorporated into these methods.  The result of the work is the presentation of the author's original concept of interpretation of the warning signal's strength, as well as the related models.