Abstract:

In modern conditions, the formation of a regional development model involves the use of technologies for identifying “smart specialization” of the economy, that is, determining the optimal industry structure, the level of diversification, perspective areas of specialization based on the efficient use of resources, capitalization of the competitive advantages of territories, identification of unique innovative “niche” in the economic space of the country and the world. The article discusses the problem of the validity of the strategy to strengthen diversification, traditionally regarded as a source of economic growth in the regions. Methodological approaches and a set of indicators have been proposed, the monitoring of which allows us to assess the general dynamics and probability of a “breakpoint” in diversification of the sectoral structure of the region’s economy, to determine the time period for the trend to deepen perspective specializations. On the example of regions of a similar industry profile (regions of the Russian Federation with dominance of the manufacturing industry and metallurgical specialization), an empirical analysis of indicators over a period of 11 years (including two economic crises of 2008-2009 and 2013-2014) was carried out, the changes of which help to assess the presence / absence of qualitative processes of latent transition of regions to a fundamentally different stage of profiling. That is, the achieved maximum diversification of the economy becomes a platform for launching an updated specialization, concentration of the region’s economic activity on an efficient industry. As indicative indicators, we used the growth rate of diversification and the physical volume of GRP, the integral indicator of localization (calculated by employment, the number of enterprises and the sales of manufacturing enterprises), the efficiency indicators of the manufacturing industry in the region (relative productivity and relative scale of enterprises in comparison with indicators of the Russian Federation as a whole), the observation of the dynamics of which, according to the authors, is expedient for intensification of state support in the sectoral structure of the economy. The method of determining the probability of “break points” of diversification as an effective tool for obtaining new data on the situation in the regions and their readiness for structural changes has been tested.