Abstract:

The paper analyzed the dynamics of GDP, Tourism GDP, and tourist arrivals in Romania in the period 2007-2016 in order to determine the relationship between these indicators using a linear regression econometric model and correlation coefficients. Tourism GDP reached Lei Billion 39.3 in 2016, being by 100.5 % higher than in 2007. Tourism total contribution to Romania's GDP increased from 4.6 % in 2007 to 5.2 %  in 2016. In 2016, total arrivals in tourist accommodation structures was 11 million, by 57.8 % higher than in 2007. About, 22.6 % of total arrivals belonged to foreigners. The regression model, Y = 11.617 X + 304.41, reflected that 1 unit increase in Tourism GDP will determine Romania's GDP to grow by 11.617 units. The regression function Y = 4.279 X - 8.7238 showed that 1 unit increase in Total Arrivals  will increase Tourism GDP by 4.279 units, and the regression function Y = 17.041 X - 4.3905 reflected that 1 unit growth in foreign tourists' arrivals will increase Tourism GDP by 17.041 units. All these regression models were valid, as confirmed by Fcalc > 6.094 F value (0.05,7,2), and Sign F <0.05, and H1 hypothesis was accepted, meaning that Tourism GDP has a positive influence on GDP and tourist arrivals have a good impact on Tourism GDP. The determination coefficients and correlations confirmed the strong links between these indicators. As a conclusion, macroeconomic policies should promote tourism to increase arrivals, receipts and tourism contribution to GDP, employment, and investment, its benefic impact on economic growth.