Abstract:

Bringing grain production to a high level will solve the problem of providing the population with the necessary food, increase productivity in animal husbandry and create strategic state food reserves, so it is necessary to pay attention to increasing the volume of grain production. The aim of the study is to provide an economic and statistical description of grain production in the Nizhny Novgorod region and subsequent forecasting of its development. The authors use the data of the Territorial body of state statistics of the Nizhniy Novgorod region on grain production in Nizhny Novgorod region for the period from 2003 to 2017. Building an independent forecasts were based on applying the chain absolute growth, moving average, plotting a linear trend and exponential functions. The most reasonable prediction results were obtained for linear trend y = 11.891 t + 986.37 and exponential functions, y = 1056•1.01^t, (the standard error is 13.7 % and 14.9 %). Prospect for further research is to take into account in the time models of a number of factors that determine the development of grain production in the region, and in particular agro-climatic features.