Abstract:

The article is devoted to the study of the problem of the fish market in Russia at the present stage, and a regression model has been constructed which allows to determine the most significant factors affecting the amount of fish consumption. The aim of the work is to create an economic-mathematical model (using regression analysis), which will allow to identify the most significant factors that influence the functioning and development of the market for fish and fish products in the Russian Federation. The article used digital material for eight years (from 2010 to 2017). The result of building an economic-mathematical model was the conclusion that (Y) the average per capita consumption of fish and fish products in Russia is most influenced by two factors: (X2) - fish production per capita (kg/year) and (X5) - purchasing fish capacity (kg/year). The coefficient of multiple correlation between the magnitude of consumption and the factors affecting it is rYX2X5 = 0.92. The parameters for estimating the regression coefficient are significant, there is no heteroscedasticity. The criterion of Durbin-Watson in our example is equal to dw = 2.23; which means the need to adopt a hypothesis about autocorrelation and the adequacy of the chosen economic and mathematical model.