Abstract:

The aim of this article is to assess short term electricity prices in Poland and to compare the forecast accuracy based on ex post errors. We estimate the ARDL models to calculate forecasts.

The motivation to undertake the research is the demand for such forecasts reported by the wholesale electricity market in Poland.

As a result of analyses for shorter forecast horizons, i.e. one and two-week forecasts, the simplest AR model gave the lowest forecast errors. For longer horizons, the model takes into account additional variables.