Abstract:

Currently, ensuring scientific and technological development is a factor in the success and prosperity of the economy. Scientific and technological progress increases the efficiency of the functioning of socio-economic systems and allows subjects of economic relations to successfully promote the results of their activities in domestic and world markets.

In such a situation, the leaderships of the countries are interested in creating conditions for intensive scientific and technological development of the economy. Forecasts are the information base for determining possible directions and rates of development of science and technology in their relationship with economic development and making high-quality management decisions in this area.

In this regard, the study is devoted to the study of trends in the scientific and technological development of the Russian Federation based on medium-term forecasting. The article presents the results of a retrospective analysis of the effectiveness of the scientific and technological development of Russia; the models used for making forecasts are characterized; the tendencies of changes in indicators characterizing the development of science and technology in Russia have been substantiated; the author's forecasts were compared with the forecasts presented in the Strategy of the Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation and the reasons for their partial non-coincidence were described.

The study was carried out using forecasting methods based on the moving average method; the method of least squares and factor analysis.