Abstract:

This paper examines whether the geopolitical shocks of 2014 and 2022 were associated with changes in the pace of renewable energy deployment in France, Germany, Italy, and Poland over 2004-2024.  The data are taken from the harmonized SHARES 2024 dataset, providing the numerator of renewable energy (the amount of new installed capacity) as well as the denominator of gross final energy consumption and the share of renewable energy. We use a segmented trend models with ex ante breaks in 2014 and 2022, addressing new methodological breaks in SHARES data in 2021. In the models for the numerator we derive and estimate separately growth trend for each energy carrier (including electricity, heating & cooling and transport). We find strong long run expansion of renewable energy in the four countries. However, there is no common re-acceleration in the post-2022 period. The only country showing aggregate re-acceleration is France, whereas Germany continues to decelerate. Italy shows no significant aggregate break, whereas Poland experiences a sharp slowdown in overall renewable energy consumption for all energy purpose, whereas consumption of electricity is increasing strongly. Europe’s transition to renewable energy may turn out to be a multi-speed affair, according to new research into the security implications.