Abstract:

This study investigates the determinants of municipal waste eco-transition across Polish counties in the years 2017–2024 using panel and spatial econometric approaches. Municipal waste eco-transition is measured as the share of selectively collected household waste in total household waste. The analysis combines two-way fixed-effects models with spatial autoregressive (SAR) specifications to assess the role of socio-economic, settlement-related, and governance-related factors. The results reveal substantial regional variation in selective collection performance and significant positive spatial dependence among neighboring counties. Classical socio-economic variables, including income, wages, and urbanization, exhibit limited explanatory power. In contrast, governance-related characteristics of local waste-management systems explain a considerably larger share of variation in eco-transition outcomes. Greater fragmentation of local waste-service markets is associated with weaker selective collection performance, while more diversified waste-stream structures are positively related to eco-transition. Spatial heterogeneity models further indicate that the effects of governance-related and income variables differ considerably across voivodeships. The findings suggest that municipal waste eco-transition depends less on traditional modernization processes and more on institutional coordination, organizational complexity, and regional governance contexts. The study contributes to the literature by integrating governance and spatial perspectives in the analysis of local waste-management systems in Poland.