Abstract:

This paper empirically impact of constituents of fundamental factors in influencing foreign exchange rates and to know their usefulness in predicting trends as compared to turning points. A questionnaire was administered to registered foreign exchange traders and investors from different trading locations of northern India. Traders were asked to give their opinion on major fundamental constituents identified from analyzing literature intensively and extensively. These fundamental factors were further analyzed to assess their relative importance over different time periods ranging from intraday to more than a year. In addition to descriptive statistics data was analyzed by paired t-test and summated rating method. The findings suggest that application of factors for forecasting exchange rates should be based on their relative significance over different time horizons and fundamental factors predict trends better than turning points.