Incomplete Decision Trees as Tool for Decision Making using Interval Arithmetic Related to Bankruptcy Problems

Abstract:

Purpose of the article The article deals with the problem of insolvency and bankruptcy from debtor’s point of view and his/her debts on the Czech Republic financial market. The company, which fell into a bankruptcy hearing, has several legislatively supported options how to deal with this situation and repay creditors money. Each of the options has been specified as a branch of a decision-making tree. Two methods of the tree evalua-tions are used, namely conventional method using already known probabilities acquired statistically from previ-ous cases and by a heuristic - Sensitivity analysis using interval arithmetic. The result is then focused on the comparison and evaluation of the best ways to repay the debt, and how big is change in repayment if the probabilities in chance node are slightly changed because of external conditions. Also including solution for the future continuation of the company currently in liquidation and quantification of percentage refund of creditors claim.  A realistic case study is presented in full details Methodology/methods Solving within decision tree with already known probabilities and Sensitivity analysis.