Abstract:

Integral indicators of macroeconomic conditions are important for understanding the current state of the economy and making decisions in fiscal and monetary policy, as they help quantify potential issues and take measures to stabilize the economy and achieve sustainable growth. This article analyzes two indicators that describe the dynamics of macroeconomic conditions using the example of Poland's economy from 1999 to 2022: the Balanced Development Index and the General Macroeconomic Equilibrium (GME) indicator. Analyzing these indicators allows for adjusting strategies to achieve macroeconomic equilibrium and sustainable development using fiscal and monetary regulation. The research task presented in this article is defined as testing an improved new version of the GME indicator, which considers the quasi-stable nature of the natural unemployment rate, implying the use of variable values for the natural unemployment rate in practical applications. Additionally, the GME indicator is based on the concept of internal and external deviations from equilibrium. These deviations rely on the trade balance model, which serves as an analytical tool for fiscal and monetary interactions in implementing sustainable growth policies. Therefore, the GME indicator is sensitive to changes in fiscal and monetary regulation instruments. The article explores the characteristics of the GME indicator, which are considered comparable or superior to those of the Balanced Development Index. These characteristics include the use of widely accepted and publicly available statistical indicators, fewer initial data points without losing significant information contained in the final index, and the use of a less complex methodology for calculating the aggregate indicator. Testing on historical data gives grounds to assert that the GME indicator fulfills its assigned role of reflecting the general state of the macroeconomic conditions.