Abstract:

The mathematical models  of forecasting depend upon the conception of the managers regarding the  development of actions for long – term forecasting or for short – term forecasting. To this end, we distinguish two directions: an explorative one and a normative one. From the point of view of the investigating way, the methods and models of forecasting can be synthetic (aggregated) and morphologic,  with a high disaggregating  degree. If we take into consideration the nature of information that can be exact, incomplete or uncertain, it results that also the worked out models  can be: deterministic, fuzzy, respectively, probabilistic ones (hybrid models can exist too). The deterministic forecasting is restricted to a single variant. The  study presented in the paper is based on a deterministic hybrid model.