Measuring the Redistributive Effect of Personal Income Tax in Poland: A Study of Changes Induced by the „Polish Deal” Program

Abstract:

The subject of this study is the examination of changes in fiscal policy following the implementation of the „Polish Deal”  program. Specifically, the analysis focuses on the impact of the modifications introduced in the methodology of calculating the Personal Income Tax (PIT) on the extent to which this tax contributes to a more equitable distribution of household income. The aim of the study is to demonstrate, by means of simple and comprehensible calculations suitable for didactic purposes, a quantitative assessment of the redistributive function of PIT before and after the implementation of the „Polish Deal”  program. The motivation for this work stems from the observation that, to date, scientific and didactic literature has provided only limited comparative analyses of the redistributive role of PIT within the Polish tax system.

Our research relies on the well-established measure of income inequality, the Gini coefficient. Two statistical approaches to its calculation, most frequently cited in the literature, are applied. To reinforce the conclusions and as an independent tool of rapid assessment, regression analysis using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method is also conducted. The findings indicate that the PIT system has fulfilled its redistributive function both prior to and after the „Polish Deal”  program. Nevertheless, certain differences favoring the new calculation method are identified. These are reflected in the trajectory of improvements in the Gini coefficient and in the diagnostic indicators of the regression models.