Abstract:

The fluctuation of bitcoin price has always been a hot topic in capital world as well as academia, and many researchers have explored the price dynamic from different aspects. Our study applies the AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model to explain the bitcoin price formation from point of miner hoarding behavior view. For one thing, miners hoarding bitcoin will cause the supply side to change rather than fix hinging on the bitcoin mechanism. For another, it will also steer sensitive
people‘s transaction activities. Thus miners‘ hoarding behavior would change both supply and demand of bitcoin. The estimation results provide evidence that hoarding behavior has a negative impact on price, and its first-order lag positively conelates with price, indicating some predictive power for bitcoin price. Furthermore, through doing two-period study, we found that after 2019 people become more sensitive to the bitcoin price and miners‘ hoarding behavior, and take transaction actions faster.