Abstract:

This paper presents an analysis of the economic development of the region of St.Petersburg with an application of ADL-model. The model is built on the basis of quarterly macroeconomic data for 13 years. The equations were built on such regional indicators as average wages, GRP, as well as the birth rate. The influencing factors of the model represent the share of various types of economic activity in the GRP. Also, on the basis of the model, there were made forecasting of the endogenous variables for 8 quarters ahead, using the extrapolated data for independent variables. In order to perform the task the software package for econometric modeling Gretl was used.