Modeling the Impact of Socio-Economic Factors on European HSR Fare: The Perspective of Rail Baltica

Abstract:

The construction of the high-speed railway (HSR) corridor Rail Baltica with a gauge of 1435 mm is justified by the aim of achievement of greater economic cohesion of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania with the rest of the European Union. The aim of this study is to prove the following hypothesis: HSR fares depend not only on the characteristics of individual HSR projects, but also on specific aspects of the economic environment in which the project is being implemented. The objects of study is the European States that are already operating HSR, as well as Rail Baltica Member States. To achieve the set aim of the study, were used the descriptive analysis, methods of multidimensional statistics and econometric methods. The result of the study is the grouping of research subjects by their level of development and determination of the degree of influence of significant factors on the value of the HSR fares. At the same time, it was noted that the forecast fare for passenger transportation along the Rail Baltica corridor is completely unrelated to salaries in the region, which may make it impossible for the bulk of the population of the project region to use these HSR services. It is concluded that objectively existing differences in the level of socio-economic development of European States have a significant impact on the formation of the HSR fare, which is confirmed by the results of correlation analysis, indicating different sets of influencing factors acting in the selected clusters.