Abstract:

Our objective is to apply multi-method social simulation to study collapses of ancient cultures and complex societies. We suggest the set of explanatory models of particular demographical, economic and environmental aspects. Models are based on four modelling principles (agent-based approach, system dynamics, cellular automata, network models), with different levels of abstraction, time and spatial scales. Models are interconnected: output data of one model works as input data of another model. This paper provides overview of our modelling framework and explains its usability for exploration of rapid decline of Celtic population in Central Europe in the Late Iron Age.