Abstract:

Strategic trade policy to stimulate domestic production in emerging markets is an increasing feature of smart industrial policy. However, the posture and strategic responses of the global multinational firms, who were incumbent market leaders, are key determinants of how relevant the global firms remain in the local economy after the implementation of the trade policy. This paper reviews two oligopolistic markets in Africa’s largest economy after the announcement of a strategic trade policy in the early 2000’s. The findings reveal that while both incumbent  multinationals lost their market leadership, the future strategic positioning of the multinational depends on a combination of factors including innovation, willingness to shape the market, and the ability to manage residual uncertainty.