Power Shortfages Risk Management on the Example of the Polish Power System

Abstract:

The paper aims at emphasizing the differences between Poland  and the EU-28 states with the level of security of electricity supply. The security of supply is a property of the entire power system, including the generation, transmission and distribution systems, and analyzes them from the point of view of flexibility on the demand side, i.e. the end customer. The level of energy safety is influenced by many factors. Their significance depends on both the internal situation in a country and the situation on global markets. A few of these sectors, though, are especially important: diversification of the structure of energy carriers in the domestic balance, degree of diversification of external sources of supply, technical condition and efficiency of devices and installations of the transmission and distribution systems for fuels and energy.  In this context, the security of electricity supply can be considered at the level of: energy availability, power, reliability of supply and quality of supplied energy. The study is focused on the aspect of the risk of energy shortages in the Polish energy system. Two power shortage incidents which occurred in August 2015 and in June 2020 were analyzed. The analysis covered the factors causing the risk and the methods of counteracting it. The Polish energy sector in the years 2015-2019 was analyzed, both in terms of the concentration of the generation sector and the production structure. Changes in the sectoral structure of electricity production in Poland and in the EU-28 were compared. The study also presents a comparison of the degree of intensity of changes in the years 2015-2019. The results of work can be used as a situational analysis for tackling security of electricity supply at the EU and country levels. They can also be treated as a statistical evidence to support the use of certain measures within the energy policy areas.