Abstract:

The paper analyzed the trend of  pork production in the EU-28, CEECs and Romania based on the empirical data provided by EuroStat for the period 2004-2014, using two methods: average change method (V1), and least square parabola(V2) and finally it was established the forecast of pork production for the period 2015-2020. In the year 2014, the EU-28 pork production accounted for 22,795 thou tons carcass weight, by 3.84 % less than in 2004. The EU is placed on the 2nd position in the world pork production, with 20.61 % market share. The increased production cost and the change in consumer's behavior determined a slight reduction of pig stock, and involved a general descending trend in pork production in the last years. A higher performance was noticed regarding pork quality and export, keeping pace with the increased demand in the  international market. In 2014, the CEECs pork production accounted for 2,091 thou tons carcass weight, having a modest contribution by 10 % to the EU-28 pork production. In the analyzed period, the production declined by 47 % due to the small sized farms, the low productivity, the high production cost and lack of competitiveness. Among the CEECs, Poland, Hungary and Romania are the main pork producers and exporters. Romania registered 329 thou tons pork production in 2014, by 37% less than in 2014, facing similar problems like all the CEECs. It contributes by 1.54 % to the EU-28 and by 15.53 % to the CEECs pork production. The trend analysis based on the two mathematical models, V1 and V2,  highlighted the general decline of pork production in the EU, the CEECs and partially in Romania, as since 2009, pork production started to recover following a slight increasing trend.