Abstract:

In the article, on the example of one of the leaders of the Russian retail company X5 Retail Group, bankruptcy risks are analyzed when a company enters foreign markets. The study used the Argenti model (indicator), which is used to identify a managerial crisis that could lead to the company's bankruptcy over the next 5-10 years. It is shown that in the conditions of the local market, X5 Retail Group has a total Argenti score of 24, which is slightly below the dangerous boundary, but inferior to the usual indicators of stable companies.

However, the company's output outside the local market will significantly increase the probability of bankruptcy, since in this case the sum of the deficiencies will be equal to 45, while the passing score will be equal to 15, which makes the overall score significantly higher than the average standard. Therefore, the decision to enter foreign markets should be accompanied by additional research in the field of strategic planning and forecasting the risk of a financial crisis.