Abstract:

Presented paper deals with description of @Risk software usage as a managerial support tool. @Risk software is used for risk simulations. Decision about investment in to the innovation, new machinery, equipment or continuing with maintenance of old equipment with high chance of fatal failure is typical example which is further described in paper. Presented mathematic model deals with comparison of investment cost of innovation and potential savings from innovation with actual operating costs and potential loss due to technical failure. Conventional economic indicators calculated by @Risk are used to determine the effectiveness of investment. The advantage of @Risk compared to conventional economic indicators is that @Risk is able to calculate with uncertainty of multiple factors in long term horizon.  @Risk software usage is introduced at a simple case study from manufacturing company in 8 years horizon.