Abstract:

The research examines European Union renewable energy consumption patterns through 2012–2023 by implementing a trend analysis method that considers definition-specific segments. The research examines Eurostat (SHARES) and EurObserv’ER data from 2012 to 2023 through a linear model which includes 2019 as an exogenous break point to analyze both level changes and slope modifications. The research uses HAC-robust (Newey–West) error analysis with additional small-sample protection methods including Theil-Sen slope estimation and jackknife and permutation testing. The RES share increased from 14.2% in 2012 to 24.6% in 2023 which represents a yearly average growth of 0.95 percentage points. The pre-break period from 2012 to 2018 shows a slope of 0.62 pp/year while the post-break period from 2019 to 2023 shows a slope of 1.07 pp/year and a single-level increase of 1.27 pp. The 2023 acceleration gap reaches +3.50 pp because the actual trend outpaced the expected pre-2019 pattern. The statistical projection based on 2019 slope values shows that renewable energy could reach 26.7% of total energy consumption by 2025. The same statistical data set shows that renewable electricity consumption patterns and total renewable energy usage patterns confirm the actual increase in renewable energy usage after 2019. The research establishes a clear baseline for policy assessment through its method of distinguishing between the fixed "step" and the variable "slope" in the data. The EU-27 data shows the highest predictive value for short-term trends through its annual percentage change rate. Historical assessments need to include the 2019 break when performing comparisons between different time periods.