Abstract:
The present paper evaluates the explanatory power and accuracy of common credibility and bankruptcy models. The sector selected for the evaluation is a construction industry in the Czech Republic. The selected period of 5 years covers the enterprises that have gone bankrupt. For each of them the following models are evaluated: Quick Kralicek’s test, credibility Index, system of balance analyses by Rudolf Doucha, Grünwald’s index, D-score, Aspect Global Rating Altman’s model, Taffler’s model, Springate model, Zmijewski’s model and all versions of Indices IN. The overall evaluation is built upon the success rate of the individual models. The last part of this contribution is a statistical analysis where attention is paid to the factors that may be crucial for the reliability of models. The results show that the most successful model for determining the bankruptcy are Aspect Global Rating with a success rate of 99% and a standard deviation of 0.5%, then the Zmijewski’s model with a success rate of 95% and a standard deviation of 2.5% . Neither the year of origin nor the number of variables in the model affects its success rate.
