Abstract:

This paper investigates a relationship between central bank interest rate (PRIBOR3M) and housing (mortgage) cycles in the Czech economy. The aim is to determine whether central bank’s interest rate is leading indicator for monitoring housing cycles. To assess the crucial role of interest rate in the set of mortgage interest rates is used methodology of leading indicator applied by OECD. Moreover, the cross-correlation approach identifies the relationship between quarterly interest rate and the following individual variables: house price index, average mortgage interest rate, average fixed 1, 3 and 5 year mortgage interest rates number of new mortgages, volume of new mortgages, average mortgage amount and mortgage installment. The data set covers a period between 2006:Q1 and 2016:Q3. The results of the paper will be used for later research and modelling of the housing sector in the Czech economy.