Abstract:

A probabilistic model is a mathematical tool for describing and analyse random phenomena. These models are widely used in cyber security, Why is it important for cyber security because it gives the possibility of forecasting, it also helps to predict future events, such as the time between attacks and the size of possible losses. The effectiveness of the various security measures is also a risk analysis: the various threats and their probabilities of occurrence, possible consequences, can be assessed. Optimisation : They help in deciding on the appropriate allocation of security resources, and they also allow the detection of various types of anomalies, of which there are more and more at this time.  They also detect deviations from the normal behaviour of the system, which may indicate that various types of attacks are taking place. Probabilistic models are powerful tools in cyber security. These models give a better understanding of the complexity of threats and make informed decisions to protect ICT systems, as well as providing opportunities to implement forms of security .  The introduction of randomness into mathematical models and computer algorithms is a very powerful and useful idea. It makes it possible to model uncertainty in the parameters of various models in science, engineering and economics. Reflects structural uncertainty. Reduces the complexity of existing models many deterministic problems can be solved more efficiently using probabilistic techniques.  Stochastic models play a key role in modern cyber security, enabling prediction, analysis and risk management in dynamic and complex IT environments. The use of these models yields the development of more sophisticated and effective strategies to protect against everyday cyber threats.