Abstract:

This article presents the findings of a study investigating how sentiment and authority impact inflation forecasting and economic decision-making, particularly in relation to cognitive reflectiveness and economic knowledge. Results reveal that high levels of cognitive reflectiveness and economic knowledge do not necessarily shield individuals from the influence of authoritative expert opinions. While participants with varying degrees of economic knowledge initially demonstrated differences in forecasting, these differences decreased after exposure to authoritative commentary. This suggests that even knowledgeable individuals, despite their cognitive reflectiveness, may remain susceptible to structural aspects of expert messaging. The study underscores how heuristic mechanisms can override cognitive reflectiveness and knowledge, making individuals vulnerable to authority-driven biases. These findings highlight the limitations of cognitive reflectiveness in counteracting emotional and authoritative influences, thus pointing to the value of critical thinking as a potential solution. Critical thinking, defined as the skill of independently analyzing and assessing information, may help mitigate cognitive distortions that often arise under economic uncertainty. Consequently, promoting critical thinking in economic education is recommended as a means to strengthen resilience against sentiment and authoritative biases, complementing cognitive reflectiveness. The study confirms that critical examination of expert messages can foster rationality in financial decision-making, especially in rapidly shifting economic environments.