Abstract:

The article presents the results of work on the selection of an indicator of the long-term unemployment rate and its possible approximation in the case of incomplete official statistics using the example of the economies of Slovenia, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Statistics on changes in the long-term unemployment rate are used in the improved methodology for calculating the general macroeconomic equilibrium indicator GME. The methodology for assessing deviations from the general macroeconomic equilibrium is also one of the existing methods for assessing and monitoring the results of fiscal and monetary regulation of the economy. The practical significance of improving the GME calculation methodology is due to the convenience of using a single quantitative indicator with a high level of aggregation of macroeconomic data as part of a single quantitative assessment of fiscal and monetary regulation. This opens up wide opportunities for unification of calculations and subsequent use of GME for comparative analysis of the economies of different countries. The advantage of the GME indicator is the stability of the methodology and the comparability of the estimates obtained also for long-term data, since the calculations are based on classical methods for calculating macroeconomic indicators. Another strong feature of the GME indicator is the calculation methodology we propose, which has a theoretical justification, which is based, among other things, on the concepts of internal and external equilibrium in the economy within the framework of the Keynesian paradigm.