Abstract:

The study examined the effect of agricultural output on economic growth of Nigeria within the period (1981-2018). Specifically, the objectives of the study are to examine the effect of crop production, livestock, fishery and forestry on economic growth in Nigeria. Secondary data on GDP, crop production, livestock, fishery and forestry was obtained from the CBN statistical bulletin. The econometrics methods adopted include the Ordinary Least Square, cointegration, error correction. The outcome of the ADF unit root test showed that the variables (RGDP, crop production, livestock, fishery and forestry) were stationary at first difference. Also the cointegration result showed that there exists cointegration amongst the variables in the model. The Error Correction Model indicates that the dynamic model is a good fit, as it explains the relationship between agricultural output and economic growth as depicted by the error correction term. Moreover, in the short run, the first lag of RGDP is positively and significantly related to current level of economic growth. From the long run results, the coefficient of crop production was found to be statistically significant at 5 percent level with RGDP, albeit, negatively signed. The coefficient of fishing was found to be positively signed and at the same time statistically significant at 5 percent level with RGDP. The coefficient of livestock was found to be negatively signed, albeit statistically significant at 5 percent level with RGDP, and the coefficient of forestry was found to be positively signed and at the same time statistically significant at 5 percent at level. Based on the aforementioned results, this study recommends amongst many others that, agricultural institutions should be revived and revamped with proper supervision for better productivity and that long term agricultural development plans/projects which are realistic should be created and executed. Also, budgetary allocation to the agricultural sector should be increased and at the same time effective utilization of the funds/budgets that can translate into improved and increased production or output annually should be ensured.