Abstract:

In everyday life, we are faced with hundreds of cyclical phenomena that recur periodically, from the change of day and night to cyclically recurring series of earthquakes. Moreover, cyclic processes that are quite different in nature have the same rhythm. Socio-economic processes are also subject to cyclicality. The correspondence of economic entities to the current phase of the economic cycle determines their success in one or another phase of the economic cycle. The difficulty in determining one or another phase of the economic cycle lies in the fact that the rhythm of the cycle is constantly changing and reliable forecasting of the phases of the economic cycle is difficult. There are two large groups of models that reveal the causes of the cyclical nature of economic processes: - based on the concept of the emergence of cycles as a result of the interaction of subjects of economic systems; - based on external exposure. Both models have disadvantages: the first group of models does not take into account external influences, for example, droughts, earthquakes, and the second group does not take into account the peculiarity of socio-economic systems to independently generate the cyclical nature of internal processes. Based on the results of evaluating existing models, the concept of a mixed model of the emergence of economic cycles was proposed, taking into account both the factor of external influence on the socio-economic system and the ability of the system itself to generate cyclic processes. It is proposed to consider the economic cycle (s) not as an oscillatory movement, but as a wave generated by the action of many factors, including cyclic processes of other areas of material reality.