Abstract:

The outlook for 2020 depends on the balance between political risks and fiscal and monetary policy responses. This will create two possible outcomes: either the slowdown observed at the end of 2018 will be stopped and a moderate recovery will occur, or the economy will go into recession. The trends of inflation and the interest rate also depend on this policy combination. Continued over-confidence in monetary policy is likely to keep yields and inflation expectations low, as monetary policy approaches its limitations. Other policy levers, such as fiscal incentives, would boost economic growth and returns.