Abstract:

Two paradoxical analyzes of the water sector in Tunisia can be advanced. According to the World Bank's report about the Tunisian water reserves published in 2009 "Tunisia is preparing to face, during the next decades, to many important water access problems, arising from growing demand and a decrease of supply. Institutions will also face more complex management problems" This orientation which highlights the scale of the water crisis in Tunisia is confronted with a totally contradictory statement of Abderrazek Souissi the General Director of the Office of Planning and the Hydraulic Equilibrium in the Agriculture Ministry, which proclaimed that "Water is scarce in Tunisia. But until now, we well managed our resources, so we cannot talk about water crisis. Thus, The main object of this paper is to analyze and dissect the evolution of the availability of water in Tunisia by forecasting it using the methodology of Box and Jenkins, thus, a manager can develop effective action plans to use these resources in a more efficient and optimal manner. Prior to the forecast step, we first apply the NIPALS algorithm to impute missing data in our series.